The Perfect Storm that Sank the Nixon Presidency
On August 9, 1974, the 37th president of the United States, Richard Nixon, resigned from office. Citing a lack of political support in the Congress, which was moving toward the first impeachment of a president in more than 100 years, Nixon decided that the interests of the nation would be best served by his resignation.
For 50 years, conventional wisdom has held that the break-in of the headquarters of the Democratic National Committee by men working for the Committee to Re-Elect the President, and subsequent efforts to cover-up the involvement of some staff members of the Committee, and of the White House itself, alone led to the self-destruction of the Nixon presidency.
Yet, in recent years, the conventional wisdom is being reconsidered. Political events over the past decade are prompting a reassessment of whether Richard Nixon would have been able to complete his term of office had the political environment of 1973-4 more closely resembled the current political environment.
It is time to explore the environment in which Richard Nixon sought to save his presidency and to recognize that he never really had a chance to survive the perfect storm that sank his presidency.
The Economic Environment: “It’s the Economy, Stupid!”
In the 1992 presidential campaign, James Carville, a senior campaign aide to then- Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton, the Democratic nominee for president, posted a sign in the campaign’s Little Rock war room. As the campaign was besieged by reports of various scandals, Carville wanted the staff to ignore those reports and remember one thing: “It’s the economy, stupid.”
Carville vividly made the point that presidential elections turn on the state of the economy. If the economy is faltering, an incumbent president seeking re-election is likely to lose. Voters who find their own personal finances under assault tend to blame the incumbent. In 1992, a weak economy helped Clinton turn George H.W. Bush into a one-term president.
As the Watergate scandal began to develop in early 1973, America’s economy was also weakening. The expiration of the wage and price controls President Nixon initiated in 1971, coupled with the Arab Oil Embargo of October 1973, drove inflation from 3.3% in 1972 to 6.2% in 1973 and then to 11.1% in 1974.
As families saw the purchasing power of their dollars eroded, it was bound to affect their approval of the President. As the year grew shorter, the economy grew even weaker. By November 1973, the United States economy fell into a recession. By the time it ran its course in March 1975, it would become the longest recession since the Great Depression.
The Arab Oil Embargo, instituted in October 1973 following United States support for Israel in the Yom Kippur War, did not just help drive inflation higher. It also had a profound effect on the mood of the American people. Shortages of gasoline led to rationing and long lines at the pumps, when gas was available.
Many states restricted the days on which a driver could buy gas. A car’s license plate determined when a driver could buy gas. It if ended in an even number, the driver could only buy gas on even-numbered dates. If it ended in an odd number, gas could only be purchased on odd numbered dates.
The cost of gas skyrocketed, nearly doubling from the year before. The price at the pump jumped from 36 cents a gallon in 1972 to 53 cents a gallon by the end of 1973. This at a time when the average weekly raise of an American worker was $130.00. By the end of 1973, it would cost nearly $8.00 – or about 16% of one’s wages – to fill a 15-gallon tank, if you could find the gas. To conserve fuel, the speed limit on all roads was capped at 55 MPH.
The historian H.W. Brands summed up the sour national mood in the winter of 1973-74: “Gas shortages were un-American, something people in other countries endured but not citizens of the United States. And Americans were used to being in a hurry and driving fast.”
Of course, the economy alone would not have damaged the Nixon presidency to the point of impeachment. As the Watergate scandal unfolded throughout 1973, and the economy began to weaken, the president’s approval began to suffer. Within months of his Second Inaugural on January 20, 1973, Nixon’s approval rating fell from 67 percent to 31 percent in early August.
The resignations of the president’s top two aides and the dismissal of his White House counsel, the wall-to-wall television and radio coverage of the Senate Watergate hearings, the disclosure of the White House taping system, the establishment of a Watergate Special Prosecutor’s Office and the dismissal of the first special prosecutor, and the House of Representatives vote to begin an impeachment inquiry, were the major drivers of the fall in Nixon’s approval rating in 1973.
But was Watergate alone enough to drive President Nixon from office? the subsequent impeachments of Presidents Clinton and Trump suggest that the threat of impeachment alone will not end a presidency. Both Clinton and Trump were impeached when America’s economy was strong. During the Clinton impeachment, inflation averaged 1.9 percent, unemployment averaged 4.2 percent, and the economy grew at a robust 4.6 percent. During the first Trump impeachment, when he was still in office, inflation averaged 1.5%, unemployment averaged about 4%, and the economy was growing.
The slumping economy of 1973-74 was not, alone, enough to weaken President Nixon’s approval ratings. He was also up against other factors that helped to sink his presidency, including the media environment and the partisan nature and makeup of the 93rd Congress. But there’s no doubt that as the Watergate saga unfolded, the sour national mood about the economy also helped drive down Nixon’s support, making it difficult for him to counter the growing threat Watergate posed to his presidency.